After seeing the increase in sales from September, 2007 v. September, 2008, I was very curious to see the final numbers for October. I knew that September ’07 was a slow month because of the closing delays due to the “Sub-Prime Mortgage Meltdown” (SPMM). I also knew that October ’07 was a stronger month than usual because some of the closings delayed in September ’07 completed in October ’07. To put this in perspective, there were 28.7% fewer closes in September ’07 than Pendings in August ’07. In October ’07 there were 0.7% fewer closings than Pendings from September ’07. The average since January, 2005 is 10.5%.
Now, in 2008 we are seeing a slightly different picture. This past September, there were only 7% fewer Solds from August ’08 Pendings… and sales were up over the previous year. In October ’08, unless there is a new revision, there were 23% fewer closings than Pendings in September ’08.
I know that this is kind of wonkish, but this gives me an idea of the mortgage market and if buyers are having a hard time getting financed. Normally sales close about 30 days after the move into Pending status. So, while it isn’t laser sharp in its accuracy, it does give a good idea of how well contracts are moving to close.
Here is the slide show of the rest of the market report.
As you look through the Market Report, keep in mind that the data for the last month is always suspect. I often see sales double or even triple from the first report to the final report. However, the November numbers are pretty weak even for being preliminary.
I’m looking forward to the numbers coming out in January.
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