Lilburn Category
Gwinnett Market Reports from January…
March 2nd, 2010 Categories: Lilburn
The real estate market for Gwinnett County is in a state of flux. There are wide variations between different location throughout the county, as well as different price strata. There are a few themes that are readily apparent, but some locations and price ranges are standouts (good or bad)…
Some quick county-wide numbers…
- January, 2010 sales were 352 homes. This is down 11.1% from the 396 homes in January, 2009, That was down 14.7% from the 464 homes in January,2008. (There might still be some stragglers that haven’t been entered yet… but there shouldn’t be many. These numbers are as of 2/23/10)
- New listings were 1526 homes for January, 2010. This is down 21.9% (1953 new listings) from January, 2009. That was down 17.3% (2363 new listings) from January 2008.
- Days on Market were down by 19 days to 87. This is good news, but I honestly don’t put much faith in the DoM number.
Overall Absorption Rates…
Take a look at this post for a quick explanation of Absorption Rates. Listings increased for January, compared to December, 2009. There were 5612 listings in January, 5219 listings in December. The “Months of Inventory” numbers for the 12 month, 6 month and 3 month averages are 10.12, 8.80 and 8.68, respectively.
What this means is that sales seem to be slowing. However, January is generally a tough month. In December, contracts usually slow, although closings remain fairly high (November contracts). So, January always looks a little weaker in the 6 month and 3 month averages. But, January also showed more months of inventory in the 12 month average, compared to December (8.03 months of inventory).
It seems like I say it every month, but next month will be interesting… One of the reasons we have to “kick the can down the road” is that we are only really able to look in a rear view mirror at sales data. Imagine trying to drive around a track only looking out the back window. Whenever there is a sharp turn, you won’t know until you are in the ditch…
Under $200,000…
This range continues to be the strongest, but it is weaker than it was last month. However, the sales season doesn’t really pick up until March (February contracts). There were 251 sales in this price range, with just under 3100 listings (3089). In the last year, sales peaked at around 540 in both June and July, and then came back up to 532 for October. They slid to 414 in December. In January of 2009, there were 270 single family homes sold.
$200,000 to $400,000…
We certainly don’t have the strength here of the lower range, but it isn’t terrible. Looking at the 3 month average, there is about 13 1/2 months of inventory. There were 93 sales with 1861 listings. Last year there were 103 sales in this price range. The same pattern held for sales (strongest in July, then June and October). As with the under $200k range, the tax credits seemed to push sales in the fall. As with the under $200k, I expect that some sales were cannabalized from this spring by the first tax credit.
$400,000 to $600,000…
Here is where we see the car drive off the cliff. The 3 month average points to having almost 29 months of inventory on the market. There were only 4 sales in this range for January 2010 (20 sales in January 2009) and 359 homes on the market. May and November were the strongest months for sales. I think we are seeing nervousness about jobs and taxes here. There are few first time home buyers that would meet the criteria for the tax credit here, and the $6500 credit wouldn’t figure prominently in the plans of buyers at this level.
$600,000 to $800,000…
Things are actually slightly better in this range than in the $400k-$600k range. There is still 27 months of inventory, but there were 3 sales this year compared to just 1 for the same month last year. There were 127 properties on the market. In this range, just a few extra sales one way or the other can have a dramatic effect on the statistics. I also don’t believe the tax credits have had much affect here.
$800,000 to $1,000,000…
The three month average points to just over 3 years of inventory at this price range. With 51 homes on the market, there was only 1 sale in this range in January… none in January 2009. In fact, there have only been around 25 sales in the last year, county-wide. And, while 6-7 months of inventory is considered balanced in the lower price ranges, because of the smaller pool here, we usually see higher numbers… but 3 years is still obviously slow.
Over $1,000,000…
Nothing to see here… There are 125 listings and there were no sales last month at this price. There were 2 for the same month the previous year. The three month average yield a little over 6 years of inventory. There were only 42 sales in this range in the last 12 months. And I don’t think I’ve seen the Absorption Rate go much below 4-5 years of inventory…
Hot and Not…
- Norcross is hot. Just 5.1 months of inventory in the under $200k range… And only 9 months of inventory in the $1M+ range!
- Duluth has just 6.3 months of inventory for the $400k-$600k range…
- Lilburn is lagging right now, with 10 months of inventory for the under $200k level… and while there have just 6 months of inventory for the $600k-$800k range, there have onyl been two sales in that range in the last 3 months (only 4 listings).
- Duluth isn’t doing so hot for the other price ranges.
- Lawrenceville, Buford and Lilburn are the big laggards in the $200k-$400k range at 17, 19 and 19 months of inventory, respectively.
- Overall, Buford is the weakest of the markets I track, at just under 13 months of inventory.
The markets I closely track are Buford, Duluth, Lawrenceville, Lilburn, Norcross, Sugar Hill and Suwanee. for these areas, I am tracking them by mailing address, not city limits. Buford, Duluth and Suwanee also include sales from counties other than Gwinnett. I also track the overall numbers for Gwinnett County.
I am excited about the growth prospects for Gwinnett County, GA. In the last few weeks we have had another announcement of a company moving their headquarters to Gwinnett. We have a wonderful quality of life, and there are abundant recreation opportunities… The Gwinnett Braves and Gladiators, Lake Lanier, one of the best parks departments in the country and proximity to all that metro Atlanta has to offer make this a GREAT place to live and work. I’ve been proud to call Gwinnett County home for most of the last 21 years.
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Volunteer!
February 24th, 2010 Categories: Lilburn
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During the month of February, as well as the end of January, I spent each Friday afternoon volunteering to talk about business and economics with a bunch of 4th Graders. This was in connection with Junior Achievement. Read the rest of this entry »
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Looking for a Deal on a New Home around Gwinnett County, GA?
February 11th, 2010 Categories: Lilburn
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I’m here for you. I have been getting these emails for years from builders promoting their inventory of homes. In some cases, they are offering incentives to agents to bring buyers to their communities. In other cases they are offing incentives to buyers. Sometimes, there are both… Read the rest of this entry »
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Say Goodbye to the Stone Mountain Super Target…
January 21st, 2010 Categories: Lilburn
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Originally built in 1999, the Super Target located in the shadow of Stone Mountain, next to the old Olympic Tennis Venue, will be closing as of January 30th, 2010. Faced with declining profits from the store, Target is pulling the plug. Read the rest of this entry »
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Lilburn Market Report for December 2009
January 12th, 2010 Categories: Lilburn
This has certainly been an interesting year in real estate. And we are still staring at the tea leaves trying to see the direction of the market and figure out what the future holds.
The biggest thing in housing in the last few months has been the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. It has had a GIANT pull on the market, and when it “expired” (it was renewed and expanded before it actually expired, but the effect seemed to expire) it altered the direction of the market… as it did when it was enacted.
Let’s get a few numbers for Lilburn out of the way… Read the rest of this entry »
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DR Horton has started building in Legends at Parkview
January 9th, 2010 Categories: Lilburn
I’ve written a couple of posts about the Legends at Parkview. Mayfield Homes was the original building in the community, but they ended up getting foreclosed. DR Horton picked up the remaining lots and have recently started construction. Read the rest of this entry »
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Interested in New Home promotions in and around Gwinnett County, GA?
January 1st, 2010 Categories: Lilburn
I have just rolled out a system to update YOU when there are promotions in new home communities in and around Gwinnett County, GA. There are days I get 6 or 7 notices from builders and developers, and there are weeks when there aren’t any… But, as soon as I get them, I will forward them to my new toy platform. Read the rest of this entry »
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New Homes Around Gwinnett County
December 19th, 2009 Categories: Lilburn
There are still some new home developments going up around Gwinnett County, GA. Even though we keep hearing on the TV and radio that new construction has all but stalled, it hasn’t completely stopped.
And, December is traditionally the slowest month of the year for homes to go under contract (January is the slowest for closings…). So, there are a number of builders that are offering incentives for buyers during this time of year. Read the rest of this entry »
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Try the LOCAL guy… HL Computers in Lilburn
December 15th, 2009 Categories: Lilburn
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This morning my wife woke me up to tell me that her desktop computer wouldn’t turn over. She pushed the button, and nothin’…
It is old, and although it has had a little bit of updating, it isn’t going to get much money input because it just isn’t worth it. We knew it was likely a power supply. They don’t cost much, but sometimes when you have to get something quickly, and local is the only option… prices seem to get a little higher. Read the rest of this entry »
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Where in the World is Lilburn, GA?
December 12th, 2009 Categories: Lilburn
And more importantly, why does it matter?
A little about Lilburn…
Lilburn is a little city in the suburbs of Atlanta, GA, in southern Gwinnett County. It is the home of Parkview High School and Berkmar High School. And while the City of Lilburn has about 11,000 people (as of the 2000 Census… it has grown since then), there are a couple time that many people with a Lilburn mailing address. In fact, the most recent numbers show over 53,000 people residing in 30047, Lilburn’s ZIP code.
The City of Lilburn was founded by the Seabord Airline Railway in 1890, but it was previously called McDaniel (until around 1900). It was renamed in honor of Lilburn Trigg Myers, a Superintendent of the railroad, and incorporated on July 27th, 1910. In the 1920s, Lilburn suffered a devastating fire, then the boll weevil killed the cotton crop in the area. The result was that shortly after the stock market cresh of 1929, the government “ceased to exist”. It wasn’t until a new water line was needed in 1955 that the city government was re-organized. Read the rest of this entry »
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