Many of you might have heard about Al Real.  He is 8 years old, and a student at Arcado Elementary School here in Lilburn.  On June 7th, while playing with a friend, Al received 3rd degree burns over 80% of his body.  He was rushed to Grady’s Burn Unit, and from there sent to the Shriner’s Hospital’s Burn Unit in Cincinnati, OH.  That is supposed to be one of the best burn specialists for children in the world. At best, he faces a long and arduous journey back to health…  And that journey has begun with skin grafts and surgeries.

As a parent, I can’t begin to understand the pain that Al’s parents are going through.  Knowing that there isn’t anything that we can do to make the hurt go away HAS to be difficult.  The thought of my child being in that situation scares me to death.

Al’s mom, Angela, was my older child’s Pre-K teacher.  She was also his teacher for summer camp a couple of years ago, and I saw her regularly through this school year as my younger child was at the pre-school in which she taught.  So, this isn’t about some stranger to me… this is about a friend.

Ade For Al

On Friday, June 18th, the Arcado Elementary PTA will have a Lemonade Stand at the Lilburn Farmer’s Market at Lilburn City Park.  The Farmer’s Market runs from 4-8pm.  This is to help the family defray some of the costs they are experiencing as they care for Al in Ohio.  Al’s father still has to remain in Lilburn most of the time to work, while  Angela and their 8 month old are in Ohio with a few other family members.

We’d love for you to come out and enjoy a glass of lemonade while helping out the Reals.

Here is a link to the above video if the embed doesn’t work.

My oldest son is getting ready to graduate Kindergarten.  And he has been loving it.  Much of that credit needs to go to his teacher, Ms. Curtis, at Arcado Elementary School in Lilburn, GA…

The class that he is in is a ‘multi-age’ class that includes Kindergartners and First Graders.  It is called a CLE class, or Continuous Learning Environment.  And for my son, it has been a marvelous experience.  Each Kindergartner is paired up with a First Grader.  They work as a team, with the First Grader mentoring the Kindergarten student.

Ms. Curtis has said that because half of the students were in the same class the previous year (the Kindergarten student complete First Grade in the same class), they are able to teach the new students how everything in the class works… and it really works…  It is like chaos crossed with military precision.  All of the kids know their roles, and while they might be all over the place during play time, when Ms. Curtis quietly calls them to order, they all go where they should be, and do whatever is scheduled to come next…

But the format of the CLE class is only part of it…  Ms. Curtis is just a great teacher.  She really cares for the kids, and each time we have been there, we have seen previous students rushing over to say hi to her… and we have spent a lot of time in the class.  Which brings us to another reason that we have enjoyed having Ms. Curtis as a teacher.  Garrett’s younger brother has been welcomed in the class with open arms… and there are several younger siblings that have visited the class and received the same welcome.

In fact, at activities like Arcado Night at local restaurants, Jackson rushes to see Ms. Curtis.  And she is always eager to see him too.  He is looking forward to Kindergarten so that he can be in Ms. Curtis’ class… just like his big brother.

Communications have been excellent as well.  And one of the things we look forward to as a family is the regular ‘photo-shows’ Ms. Curtis produces for the parents.  She shoots a lot of pictures in class and they are assembled in photo-shows.  Garrett loves pointing out all of his classmates and telling us everything that happened (oddly, he doesn’t remember all of that ’stuff’ when we try to talk about it during dinner ;^ ).  The photo-shows and newsletters help to keep us connected between our visits to the class.

But results are where it counts in scholastic performance.  And Garrett is excelling in class.  Despite not quite being done with Kindergarten (there are a few more days of class), he is almost at the levels required to complete First Grade in reading and math.  And he loves going to school.  He loves reading and working on his math problems.  He loves taking the tests on his reading and math studies.

To me, THAT is the measure of a teacher.  Ms. Curtis is not just providing the tools and knowledge to allow my child to learn, she is helping to instill the desire to learn (I think he gets some of it at home, too…  ;^ )

One of the things that makes me very happy… Garrett will be with Ms. Curtis next year as well.  Instead of being the ‘co-Pilot’, and learning from his partner, he will be a ‘Pilot’ and helping a new Kindergartner learn the ropes.

Arcado ranks quite well in comparison to other Gwinnett County Elementary Schools.  Gwinnett County has one of the best schools systems in the state…  Ms. Curtis is in good company.

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Here in Lilburn, GA, in the heart of Gwinnett County, we are on the path to getting our second Community Improvement District (CID).

But what does that mean?

The basis of a CID is a geographically defined area, with businesses choosing to install a special tax on themselves in order to improve the area… and their businesses.  The property owners, representing at least 75% of the property value in the area, agree to tax themselves, and then elect a board to oversee how the money is used.

They are a partnership of public and private sectors.  They are enabled by municipal government, the money is collected through tax revenue, but the private group spends the money.  The money doesn’t ‘replace’ other tax money, but supplements it.

The Georgia Constitution specifies that funds collected through a CID may be used for seven types of applications:

1. Water
2. Public transportation
3. Street and road construction and maintenance
4. Parks and recreational areas and facilities
5. Storm water and sewage
6. Parking, terminal and dock facilities
7. Other

In the Metro Atlanta area there are several CIDs.

• The Cumberland Mall area
• Perimeter Center area
• US78 from West Park to around Scenic Highway
• Gwinnett Place CID
• US29 through Lilburn

Of course, there are others.

I know that in my travels, over the last few years I have seen beautification projects, traffic improvements and other changes in those districts. I’m looking forward to the continued improvements in the Gwinnett County CIDs.  There will likely be a few more in the central part of the county in the next few years as local businesses step up to deal with aging infrastructure, better manage traffic flow and improve the marketability of the area.

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Market stats for Lilburn, GA March, 2010, indicate that there are 419 properties on the market (as of March 31st). Overall, there is about a 15.3 month supply of properties, with a slowing in sales since December.  That is fairly normal for the winter season.  March sales were up compared to 2009, though.

Image by mjp* via Flickr

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 240 listings, with about an 11.8 month supply.  Absorption Rates have been slowing since December, but sales were up slightly since March 2009.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 161 listings for sale, and about 27 months of supply. This segment has been getting weaker each month since at least November.  Sales were up by a couple of units in March, but so were listings.

From $400k to $600k, there are still 12 homes on the market. The absorption rate is still around 3 years,.  Of course, there is a seasonal dip around the Holidays and the pick-up isn’t until March and April.

Above $600k, there are 6 listings, but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  There have been two sales in the last three months, but prior, there had only been two other sales in 2009 (February and November).  Two of the listings are above $800k, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for that range…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta.  As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County.  It was incorporated in 1910.  Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School.  Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Spring is busting out all over Lilburn, GA.  The usual signs are plain to see, and if you are missing them, the pine pollen will make sure you see spring everywhere…

Of course, there are a few things that you need to do in order to prepare for spring.

• Change the Smoke Detector batteries if you didn’t do it with the time change.
• Change the air filter on your HVAC. Depending on your filter media, it usually needs to be changed at an interval between 30 days and 30 months.  The 1″ thick (often blue) filters need to be changed after about 30 days.  The 4″ thick filters usually go about 3-4 months.  As they get loaded with dust, they stop flowing as well… and can lead to the lines freezing up when it gets hot out.
• Tune that lawnmower.  In addition to the oil change, it isn’t bad to replace the spark plug and air filter.  Sharpening the blade is a good idea as well.  Hopefully, you used a fuel stabilizer back in the fall.  Otherwise there might be some varnish in the carb that reduces performance.  Same goes for the leaf blower, edger, hedge trimmer and chainsaw.
• Give the house a good cleaning… outside. Get someone to pressure wash the outside and the driveway.  This is also a good time to see it there are any issues that need to be taken care of… caulking, painting, gutter repairs or cleaning.

You probably kow the drill.  That spring honey-do list can be long, but it is way better to take care of it now, rather than when it is 100 degrees outside.  There are also some lawn things that should get done…

• Doing a spring ‘Weed & Feed’ isn’t a bad idea. It might be a little late for a pre-emergent crabgrass killer, but a post emergent may do the trick.
• Don’t go nuts trimming hedges quite yet. Azaleas and other flowering bushes aren’t quite out yet (but they will be soon).  If you cut those back, they won’t be able to flower.  However, if you cut them back as the flowers start to die, they will flower again next year… and probably even more…  Smae goes with fruit trees… if you cut them back now, they won’t bear fruit.

And because this is a glorious time in this part of Georgia, open those windows and enjoy the mind days before the pollen gets out of hand.  It is a great time to get out in the yard or garage and get some things done…  It isn’t cold, and it isn’t hot… And if you run across a bunch of stuff you don’t need to trip over anymore… it is also a perfect time for a garage sale.

Still working on the details, but there are changes coming.

The end goal is to create more of a hyper-local news site.  As we build towards that goal, we are inviting local businesses to post specials and information for Lilburn area residents.  The real estate content is going to be ratcheted down as the other content is built up.

There will also be a few surprises coming…

In the mean time, if you are a Lilburn, GA, area business owner, and you would like to promote special offers… for free… We’d love for you to use the Lilburn, GA Fan Page on FaceBook to do that.

• Restaurant Menus and daily specials
• Home Service offers
• Landscaping Spring Specials
• There are a lot more interesting possibilities.

When the site is finished coming together, it will have a stream of news local to Lilburn.  We’d love for you to be a part of it…

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Lilburn is already kind of home to part of the Evermore CID running along US78 between Stone Mountain and Snellville. As an area resident, some of the improvements that are directly and indirectly a result of the CID are quite obvious.

• 

  Image by mjp* via Flickr

  The updating of the bridge over the Yellow River between Lake Lucerne and the Yellow River Game Ranch.

• Roadway improvements including new medians from East Park Place out to around Highpoint Road.

There is also another direct project that hasn’t been visible yet… the rehabilitation of the old Olympic Tennis venue on West Park Place near the (now closed) Super Target.

But another group is trying to bring a new Community Improvement District to Lilburn. This one would run along US29 from Jimmy Carter Blvd out to Ronald Reagan Parkway.

It will be interesting to see all of the plans for this area. There is a lot of commercial activity along the corridor, but it has never really been a destination like The Avenues in Snellville or some of the town centers (Norcross comes to mind). There are a lot of great places to shop, eat and play in Lilburn, GA.

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Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta.  As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County.  It was incorporated in 1910.  Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School.  Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Market stats for Lilburn, January, 2010, indicate that there are 359 (January 31st) properties on the market. Overall, there is about a 10 month supply of properties, with a slight acceleration in sales during October and November, but slowing in December and January.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 214 listings, with about an 10 month supply. The same pattrern hold that sales accelerated through October and November and slowed after that.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 128 listings for sale, and about 10.5 months of supply. Even though the tax credit for First time Home Buyers wasn’t as important to this segment, it still affected the sales distribution.

From $400k to $600k, there are 11 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 11 months, and it is definately slowing.  Of course, there is a seasonal dip around the Holidays and the pick-up isn’t until March and April.

Above $600k, there are 6 listings, but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  There have been two sales in the last three months, but prior, there had only been one other sale in 2009 (February).  Two of the listings are above $800k, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for that range…

From LaneBailey.com.  I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

The real estate market for Gwinnett County is in a state of flux.  There are wide variations between different location throughout the county, as well as different price strata.  There are a few themes that are readily apparent, but some locations and price ranges are standouts (good or bad)…

Some quick county-wide numbers…

• January, 2010 sales were 352 homes.  This is down 11.1% from the 396 homes in January, 2009,  That was down 14.7% from the 464 homes in January,2008.  (There might still be some stragglers that haven’t been entered yet… but there shouldn’t be many.  These numbers are as of 2/23/10)
• New listings were 1526 homes for January, 2010.  This is down 21.9% (1953 new listings) from January, 2009.  That was down 17.3% (2363 new listings) from January 2008.
• Days on Market were down by 19 days to 87. This is good news, but I honestly don’t put much faith in the DoM number.

Overall Absorption Rates…

Take a look at this post for a quick explanation of Absorption Rates.  Listings increased for January, compared to December, 2009.  There were 5612 listings in January, 5219 listings in December.  The “Months of Inventory” numbers for the 12 month, 6 month and 3 month averages are 10.12, 8.80 and 8.68, respectively.

What this means is that sales seem to be slowing.  However, January is generally a tough month.  In December, contracts usually slow, although closings remain fairly high (November contracts).  So, January always looks a little weaker in the 6 month and 3 month averages.  But, January also showed more months of inventory in the 12 month average, compared to December (8.03 months of inventory).

It seems like I say it every month, but next month will be interesting…  One of the reasons we have to “kick the can down the road” is that we are only really able to look in a rear view mirror at sales data.  Imagine trying to drive around a track only looking out the back window.  Whenever there is a sharp turn, you won’t know until you are in the ditch…

Under $200,000…

This range continues to be the strongest, but it is weaker than it was last month.  However, the sales season doesn’t really pick up until March (February contracts).  There were 251 sales in this price range, with just under 3100 listings (3089).  In the last year, sales peaked at around 540 in both June and July, and then came back up to 532 for October.  They slid to 414 in December.  In January of 2009, there were 270 single family homes sold.

$200,000 to $400,000…

We certainly don’t have the strength here of the lower range, but it isn’t terrible.  Looking at the 3 month average, there is about 13 1/2 months of inventory.  There were 93 sales with 1861 listings.  Last year there were 103 sales in this price range.  The same pattern held for sales (strongest in July, then June and October).  As with the under $200k range, the tax credits seemed to push sales in the fall.  As with the under $200k, I expect that some sales were cannabalized from this spring by the first tax credit.

$400,000 to $600,000…

Here is where we see the car drive off the cliff.  The 3 month average points to having almost 29 months of inventory on the market.  There were only 4 sales in this range for January 2010 (20 sales in January 2009) and 359 homes on the market.  May and November were the strongest months for sales.  I think we are seeing nervousness about jobs and taxes here.  There are few first time home buyers that would meet the criteria for the tax credit here, and the $6500 credit wouldn’t figure prominently in the plans of buyers at this level.

$600,000 to $800,000…

Things are actually slightly better in this range than in the $400k-$600k range.  There is still 27 months of inventory, but there were 3 sales this year compared to just 1 for the same month last year.  There were 127 properties on the market.  In this range, just a few extra sales one way or the other can have a dramatic effect on the statistics.  I also don’t believe the tax credits have had much affect here.

$800,000 to $1,000,000…

The three month average points to just over 3 years of inventory at this price range.  With 51 homes on the market, there was only 1 sale in this range in January… none in January 2009.  In fact, there have only been around 25 sales in the last year, county-wide.  And, while 6-7 months of inventory is considered balanced in the lower price ranges, because of the smaller pool here, we usually see higher numbers… but 3 years is still obviously slow.

Over $1,000,000…

Nothing to see here…  There are 125 listings and there were no sales last month at this price.  There were 2 for the same month the previous year.  The three month average yield a little over 6 years of inventory.  There were only 42 sales in this range in the last 12 months.  And I don’t think I’ve seen the Absorption Rate go much below 4-5 years of inventory…

Hot and Not…

• Norcross is hot.  Just 5.1 months of inventory in the under $200k range…  And only 9 months of inventory in the $1M+ range!
• Duluth has just 6.3 months of inventory for the $400k-$600k range…
• Lilburn is lagging right now, with 10 months of inventory for the under $200k level… and while there have just 6 months of inventory for the $600k-$800k range, there have onyl been two sales in that range in the last 3 months (only 4 listings).
• Duluth isn’t doing so hot for the other price ranges.
• Lawrenceville, Buford and Lilburn are the big laggards in the $200k-$400k range at 17, 19 and 19 months of inventory, respectively.
• Overall, Buford is the weakest of the markets I track, at just under 13 months of inventory.

The markets I closely track are Buford, Duluth, Lawrenceville, Lilburn, Norcross, Sugar Hill and Suwanee.  for these areas, I am tracking them by mailing address, not city limits.  Buford, Duluth and Suwanee also include sales from counties other than Gwinnett.  I also track the overall numbers for Gwinnett County.

I am excited about the growth prospects for Gwinnett County, GA.  In the last few weeks we have had another announcement of a company moving their headquarters to Gwinnett.  We have a wonderful quality of life, and there are abundant recreation opportunities…  The Gwinnett Braves and Gladiators, Lake Lanier, one of the best parks departments in the country and proximity to all that metro Atlanta has to offer make this a GREAT place to live and work.  I’ve been proud to call Gwinnett County home for most of the last 21 years.

from GwinnettGarageGuy.com

During the month of February, as well as the end of January, I spent each Friday afternoon volunteering to talk about business and economics with a bunch of 4th Graders.  This was in connection with Junior Achievement.

It might sound like pulling teeth, but it was really a blast.  The kids were great.  They were engaged and interested.  In fact, by the end of the course, they were greeting my by name as I entered the room…  I was late on the last day, and one of the kids commented that she “was afraid I wasn’t going to be there.”

The whole experience was immensely rewarding.

Just to be clear, these weren’t hand picked students or a special class of high achievers.  These were average kids in an average class…

While the details of the classes aren’t important, there is something else that IS very important.  The important part is that these kids WANT to learn and WANT to have adult come in and talk with them about the larger world.  It helps to be entertaining and to speak to issues and examples to which they can relate.

And there is something else that is important…

As people that are involved in business on a daily basis, we can help these ids understand how business works and how the economic system can benefit them and society as a whole.

It doesn’t matter if you choose to invest your time with Junior Achievement or some other worthy organization, giving to the kids is very rewarding and the payback is exceptional.

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